Everyone wants a share of the Apple (pie) and has Simon Harris peaked?

What a difference a year makes – especially for Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and their respective leaders. The topic setting WhatsApp groups and politicians’ phones hopping this week was The Irish Times poll which showed Taoiseach Simon Harris’s personal approval rating shoot up 17 points to 55 per cent. At the same time, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald’s personal satisfaction rating has dropped to 30 per cent. This time last year, she had personal approving ratings of 42 per cent in the same polling series. Sinn Féin are losing votes across all age groups now, and Fine Gael are picking up votes across the same groups. This time last year, Fine Gael commanded the support of 19 per cent of 50 to 64 year olds. That has now risen to 32 per cent.
Overall, the state of the parties, when undecided voters and those unlikely to vote are excluded, is: Fine Gael 27 per cent (up four); Sinn Féin 20 per cent (down three); Fianna Fáil 19 per cent (down one).
Among the smaller parties the Green Party is at 5 per cent (up one); Labour 6 per cent (up one); the Social Democrats 4 per cent (up one); Solidarity-People Before Profit 2 per cent (no change); Aontú 1 per cent (no change).
The question is: has Simon Harris peaked? And even if he hasn’t, and further gains lie ahead, will any of it be enough to win seats for a raft of new and relatively unknown candidates?
Sinn Féin TD Pearse Doherty let fly at the Government this week over plans to gradually increase the current €2 million tax-free limit on pensions by €200,000 a year from 2026 until it reaches €2.8 million in 2028.
Cabinet made the decision following concerns that the €2 million limit before tax of 40 per cent is introduced was dissuading gardaí from applying for senior positions and also acted as a barrier for other high earning public servants.
But Sinn Féin have described the plan as “madness”, and Doherty did not hold back as the Dáil returned for the first week of the new term.
He said the Government is asking “those who work in Tesco or nurses or guards or firefighters or teachers to help build up the pension funds of those at the very top, to the tune of €2.8 million”.
He described this as “crazy.”
If you’re a high earner: clearly, yes! Pearse Doherty’s contention in the Dáil was that “those on the State pension” are being left to “languish” and are “left with crumbs off the table.” The Government has argued that the State pension has increased by €29 a week since it came into office. And while that may be true, the whole skirmish has put the focus back onto pensions at a time when backbenchers are demanding increases of up to €20 in the State pension. These demands are being made in the context of the imminent budget, of course. Sources have previously been adamant that the increase will be worth €12. But with an election looming and Sinn Féin on the attack, pressure has increased on the Government to do more.
Ministers could be on a collision course as they all set their sights on those Apple tax billions, after Apple and Ireland lost a long-running case arguing that the tax was not due to the State.
As Jack Horgan Jones revealed this week, everyone wants a slice of the (Apple) pie.
Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien has his bids in early. He wants expanded funding for the Land Development Agency to build 20,000 homes by 2030, as well as a low-interest loan fund for builders and non-profit Approved Housing Bodies, which would be administered through the Housing Finance Agency and Home Building Finance Agency.
Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly, meanwhile, is pushing for the roll out of the long-awaited digital health records across the health service.
The destination of the funds may potentially be revealed on budget day, and in the meantime, Ministers will scrap it out for the goods.
While much of the focus of this week’s poll was on the big players, it was a mixed bag for the leaders of the smaller parties. It’s early days for new Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman but it won’t have been welcome news that his personal approval rating is only 17 per cent – a few points below what former leader Eamon Ryan was polling at in recent months. In Fianna Fáil, Micheál Martin is now the second most popular leader after Simon Harris with a personal approval rating of 47 per cent – up one point. Fianna Fáil are consistently hovering around the 20 per cent mark, but the party is adamant that they will outpoll the poll on, well, polling day.
Pat Leahy will have the next instalment of the The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll, which will ask people for their preference of Taoiseach and also their preference on the timing of the next general election.
Jack Horgan Jones will look at the emerging fault lines in the Coalition ahead of Budget 2025 and the general election.
In the Inside Politics podcast Europe Correspondent Jack Power on how Ireland was lumbered with the EU Commission’s justice portfolio.